Market Update (Gold Price Surge)
January 2026 spot gold surged to new all-time highs, priced at $4,600+/oz, and fueled by rising safe-haven buying and the anticipation of monetary stimulus. With larger-scale gold miners seeing their operating margins expand significantly with each $100/oz increase in the price of gold, this pricing environment will continue to be significant to their operations and profitability.
Kinross – Stellar Year-Over-Year Performance In Perspective
Kinross’s year-over-year performance will stand out, not because of the percentage increase in gold production or other performance metrics, but because of how effective Kinross was able to translate the increased gold price into free-cash-flow and earnings.
Year-over-year Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2024 performance highlights:
- Revenue: $1.8 billion (up 26%) vs. $1.4 billion.
- Realized gold price: $3,460/oz (up 40%) vs. $2,477/oz.
- Cash generated from operations: $1.02 billion (up 39%) vs. $734 million.
- Free cash flow attributable to shareholders: $687 million (up 66%) vs. $415 million.
Similarly, Kinross’s net earnings and margins expanded year-over-year.
Kinross’s margin expansion demonstrates that the company was able to offset the increasing cost of producing gold, primarily driven by inflationary pressures, by realizing significantly higher prices for the gold produced in 2025 compared to 2024.
Financial Performance – Full-Year Basis
The quarter’s results were not an anomaly; the company’s full-year financial performance clearly demonstrates the company’s ability to generate substantial amounts of cash from its business and convert those amounts into a strengthening balance-sheet.
- Cash generated from operations: $2.45 billion (up 52%) vs. $1.61 billion.
- Free cash flow attributable to shareholders: $1.34 billion (up 139%) vs. $560 million.
- Net earnings: $949 million (up 128%) vs. $416 million.
As of year-end 2024, Kinross had total liquidity of approximately $2.3 billion, which includes over $610 million in cash and equivalents. As such, Kinross is well-positioned to weather a decline in gold prices and maintain its status as a relatively less volatile investment vehicle to achieve gold price exposure.
Kinross’s results demonstrate a critical difference between various gold mining companies: price leverage only generates value if it generates cash. While Kinross saw increased AISC in parts of 2025, it was able to improve its margins substantially as a result of higher prices for gold being realized more quickly than increases in costs. Ultimately, Kinross’s results represented a significant improvement in free cash flow versus merely a one-time accounting adjustment.
Looking Ahead – Execution Outlook
Going forward, Kinross’s focus continues to be on executing its existing plan of controlled capital expenditures, improving operational efficiency and extending the lives of its mines through optimization.
Small-Cap Optionality – Colibri Resource (TSXV: CBI; OTC: CRUCF)
While Kinross offers investors a relatively predictable and cash-generating experience in the gold space, there are opportunities in the small-cap exploration segment that can offer asymmetrical returns based on the successful discovery of mineral resources.
An example of Colibri’s optionality is exemplified through the hard-drill results received from its Pilar gold project in Sonora, Mexico.
Hard Drill Data Highlights:
- 83.5 meters @ 1.3 grams per tonne gold (g/t Au)
- Including a 9.7 meter higher-grade interval @ 10.3 g/t Au
Successful results such as these matter at the market level because they have the potential to create a disproportional re-rating in the equities of small-cap explorers.
Colibri Resource Market Data (CAD, TSXV):
- Current Share Price: ~CA$0.31
- Current Market Capitalization: ~CA$10.2 million
- Year-Over-Year Share Price Change: ~+130%
These figures illustrate the asymmetry present in investing in small-cap explorers. At a relatively low absolute valuation, the successful discovery of mineral resources can create a significant re-rating of the equity. Conversely, Kinross Gold (TSX: K / NYSE: KGC) is a large-cap gold miner that reflects its long-term cash-flow generating ability and does not reflect the opportunity to create a significant amount of value through the discovery of mineral resources.
Structurally, Colibri retains a 49% interest in the Pilar project after completing the earn-in by its partner to 51%. The retention of a majority interest in the Pilar project by Colibri limits the capital required to advance the project while preserving a meaningful opportunity for Colibri to participate in the economics created by future discoveries made on the property. Additionally, Colibri has previously demonstrated access to capital, having closed an oversubscribed financing of approximately $1.49 million in gross proceeds.
Bottom Line
Kinross’s year-over-year growth is clearly reflected in its financial performance and cash flow generation. Kinross provides investors with scale, liquidity, and durability in their gold holdings. Investors who seek to complement that stability with high-risk, high-reward exploration optionality can consider selecting small-cap gold names, including Colibri, to add upside torque to their portfolios.
Marc has been involved in the Stock Market Media Industry for the last +5 years. After obtaining a college degree in engineering in France, he moved to Canada, where he created Money,eh?, a personal finance website.
