Gold is holding strong just below all-time highs, trading around $3,360–$3,370/oz after a bounce from last week’s low of ~$3,268. For day traders and macro-watchers alike, this is where the game gets interesting.
The market is sitting in a weird but exciting middle ground: short-term traders are seeing both bullish breakouts and short rejections, while the macro picture is heating up thanks to weak jobs data and rising expectations of a Fed rate cut.
What Day Traders Are Seeing: Signals Lighting Up
If you’re in and out of positions faster than the Fed can say “data-dependent,” here’s the latest:
📊 Triggered Signals (Daily Charts)
- Bullish crossover: Price just pushed above the 20-period adaptive MA
- Bearish trend reversal: Longer-term MAs (20 & 50) show past weakness still in play
- Williams %R shows oversold conditions (under −80)
- Bullish Harami candlestick reversal pattern just printed
In simple terms: we’re seeing mixed momentum, but a reversal bounce setup is on the table.
TradingView Setup Making Rounds on Reddit
- Sell trigger zone: $3,345–$3,350
- Target: Downside to ~$3,288
- Invalidation: Close above $3,355
This one’s making waves among scalpers who are watching for rejection candles and volume spikes in that upper range. If gold closes above $3,355, the bear case dies quick.
Macro Pressure Cooker: Why Gold Has a Bullish Safety Net
Here’s the macro angle no one should ignore —
- U.S. Jobs Report Missed: Only ~73k jobs in July vs 100k forecast
- Fed Rate Cut Odds? Now over 90% chance for September
- Dollar Weakness: A weaker USD usually lifts gold
- Geopolitical anxiety: Tensions in multiple regions = more safe-haven demand
The macro picture is handing gold a cushion — even if traders play both sides short-term.
Technical Cheat Sheet for Quick Trades (H4 or Hourly)
| Strategy | Entry Signal |
|---|---|
| Scalp Long | $3,280–$3,290 + oversold + bounce off lower Bollinger |
| Momentum Short | $3,345–$3,350 + volume spike + bearish candle |
| Breakout Long | Close above $3,355 + MACD crossover confirmation |
Risk management tip: Tight stops (~10–15 USD range) with a clean 1:1.5 R/R ratio is how you avoid getting wrecked.
Indicator Pulse Check
- RSI: Neutral (~46), watch for push past 50
- ADX: Strong trend at 54 — this isn’t a lazy sideways market
- ATR: High (~17) = more volatility, more profit potential
- Volume: Still king — spikes validate price moves
- Bollinger Bands: Watch for lower-band bounces and upper-band blasts
The Takeaway: Watch the Trigger Zones
Right now, it’s a game of precision:
- Rejection near $3,345–$3,350? That’s your short setup.
- Clean break over $3,355? Watch for upside momentum.
- Dips to $3,285–$3,290? That’s your shot at a long with tight stops.
Macro and momentum are oddly aligned right now. Don’t ignore the big picture while you’re playing the 5-minute chart.
TL;DR
- Gold is stable near highs, but breakout and fade zones are clear
- Fed rate cuts + inflation + weak USD = macro tailwinds
- Signals say “choose your bias, but stay nimble”
- Scalp setups and swing plays are both valid
Marc has been involved in the Stock Market Media Industry for the last +5 years. After obtaining a college degree in engineering in France, he moved to Canada, where he created Money,eh?, a personal finance website.
