As the world races toward electric mobility and green infrastructure, one metal has quietly cemented itself at the center of it all: nickel. Often overshadowed by lithium and cobalt, nickel is now grabbing headlines, driven by surging demand for EV batteries and tight global supply. Nowhere is this shift more prominent than in Indonesia, the world’s nickel kingpin.
Why Nickel Matters More Than Ever
Nickel’s traditional role in stainless steel production has expanded into the battery supply chain — especially for electric vehicles. High-nickel cathode chemistries (like NMC and NCA) offer higher energy density, making them the preferred choice for longer-range EVs. As a result, demand for class 1 battery-grade nickel is surging.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), EV-related demand for nickel could rise 20-fold by 2040 under a net-zero scenario. BloombergNEF projects nickel demand to hit over 6.2 million metric tons by 2030, up from just over 3 million in 2020.
Indonesia’s Nickel Empire
Indonesia holds over 20% of the world’s nickel reserves and has become the largest global producer, thanks to aggressive downstream investments. The country banned raw ore exports in 2020 to push local refining, forcing buyers to invest directly into Indonesian smelters.
As of 2025, Indonesia produces more than 1.8 million metric tons of nickel annually — more than double the output of the Philippines and Russia combined. Major global players like Tesla, LG Energy Solution, and CATL have all signed MOUs or joint ventures with Indonesian partners to secure supply.
President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) has called nickel a strategic asset: “Indonesia must not just be a raw material exporter. We must build the battery and the EV here.”
Investment Opportunities
Investors looking to ride the nickel wave can consider:
- Nickel miners: North American investors can consider companies like Talon Metals (TSX: TLO / OTC: TLOFF), which is developing the Tamarack Nickel Project in Minnesota and has a supply agreement with Tesla; FPX Nickel (TSXV: FPX), exploring its Decar Nickel District in British Columbia; and Canada Nickel Company (TSXV: CNC), advancing its Crawford Nickel-Cobalt project in Ontario. These firms offer exposure to class 1 nickel with cleaner ESG profiles compared to Indonesian operations.
- ETFs: Global X Nickel ETF (NIKL) tracks nickel futures and producers, returning +19.4% YTD (as of June 2025).
- Battery supply chain stocks: Exposure via battery manufacturers like LGES, CATL, or even auto giants like Tesla and Hyundai, which have integrated nickel deals in Indonesia.
Challenges and Geopolitics
Despite its dominance, Indonesia’s nickel sector faces scrutiny over:
- Environmental impact: Open-pit mining and coal-powered smelters raise ESG red flags.
- Geopolitical risks: Tensions with the EU over export restrictions led to a WTO challenge, which Indonesia lost — but Jokowi doubled down on resource nationalism.
- Regulatory changes: Sudden shifts in export taxes or ownership requirements can spook investors.
Outlook: A Bullish Case with Caveats
Analysts at Goldman Sachs see nickel prices climbing to $25,000/ton by late 2025, driven by EV battery demand and constrained supply growth. UBS similarly sees upward pressure as Class 1 nickel becomes scarcer.
Still, the market remains volatile. LME nickel prices spiked to $100,000/ton briefly in 2022 before collapsing due to short squeezes and speculative unwinds. As of mid-2025, nickel trades around $20,300/ton.
Bottom Line
Nickel is no longer the forgotten metal — it’s a pillar of the EV transition. Indonesia’s control of global supply puts it at the center of this shift, offering both enormous opportunity and unique challenges.
For investors, targeted exposure to miners, ETFs, or battery supply chain players could provide long-term upside — but geopolitical awareness and ESG diligence are key. As the nickel story unfolds, Indonesia will remain the market’s key stage.
Marc has been involved in the Stock Market Media Industry for the last +5 years. After obtaining a college degree in engineering in France, he moved to Canada, where he created Money,eh?, a personal finance website.
